Nigeria’s crude oil production recorded a modest increase in January 2026 but still fell short of the 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) quota allocated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extending the country’s compliance gap to six consecutive months.
According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced 1.459 mbpd in January, up from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 — an improvement of roughly 38,000 barrels per day. Despite the rebound, output remained below the agreed ceiling, underscoring persistent production challenges in Africa’s largest oil producer.
A Pattern of Underperformance
The latest figures mean Nigeria has failed to meet its OPEC quota every month since August 2025. In fact, throughout 2025, the country underperformed in nine out of twelve months, exceeding its target only in January, June, and July.
Nigeria began 2025 on a strong note, producing 1.54 mbpd in January — about 38,700 barrels per day above its allocation. However, output declined steadily in the months that followed. February production dropped to 1.47 mbpd, while March recorded one of the year’s deepest shortfalls at 1.40 mbpd.
Although there were modest recoveries in April (1.49 mbpd) and May (1.45 mbpd), the country did not return above quota until June and July, when production briefly climbed to 1.51 mbpd. The gains proved short-lived as output slipped again in the final quarter of the year.
Year-on-year, Nigeria’s crude production declined by more than 80,000 barrels per day, raising concerns about revenue stability and fiscal planning in an oil-dependent economy.
Regulatory Push for Higher Output
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has acknowledged the need for structural reforms to boost production. Its Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, outlined a three-pronged strategy focused on:
Production optimisation and revenue expansion
Regulatory predictability and operational efficiency
Safe and sustainable upstream operations
The plan aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s broader economic blueprint, which targets crude output of 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.
Eyesan emphasized recovering shut-in volumes, curbing natural field decline, reducing losses, and accelerating time-to-first oil — all without increasing regulatory burdens on operators.
Refinery Capacity and Production Expectations
Industry observers note that renewed expectations for higher crude supply have also been fueled by the ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery, which recently announced it had reached its full processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
While the refinery primarily addresses domestic refining capacity, stakeholders argue that improved upstream performance will be critical to sustaining supply chains and meeting both domestic and export obligations.
The Bigger Picture
Nigeria’s repeated failure to meet its OPEC quota highlights ongoing structural bottlenecks, including infrastructure constraints, operational inefficiencies, and investment gaps. With global oil markets closely watching supply discipline among OPEC members, Nigeria’s ability to stabilize and scale production will remain central to its economic outlook in 2026 and beyond.
